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Is populism stalking the Andes again?
By Erasto Almeida News that reputable surveys show nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala is the frontrunner in Peru's presidential race after overtaking former president Alejandro Toledo forced a...
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The bells ring for change in Cuba
By Risa Grais-Targow By all rational measures, Cuba is effectively irrelevant to the United States. The island is small, its economy is about the size of New Hampshire's, and since the collapse of the...
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Is Rafael Correa about to become the next Hugo Chávez?
By Risa Grais-Targow Votes are still being tallied for Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa's May 7 constitutional referendum (to his own 2008 constitution), which asked voters to weigh in on 10 issues...
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Power shortages dim Chavez's reelection hopes
By Daniel Kerner Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez faces the real possibility that he may lose the 2012 presidential election after more than a decade in office, in part because of his...
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Chávez: For better, for worse
By Risa Grais-Targow and Daniel Kerner Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez is currently recuperating in a Cuban hospital after emergency surgery on a pelvic abscess. Or so goes the official story....
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Washington's newest Cuba problem
By Risa Grais-Targow Cuba. Oil. Two words that tend to get U.S. politicians hot under the collar, though usually not in the same sentence. That could change as the 2012 campaign season heats up in the...
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In Guatemala, troubles ahead and troubles behind
By Heather Berkman Guatemala's presidential campaign has been full of twists and turns, with the most recent bump coming on Wednesday, when the indigenous organization Waqib Kej presented a letter to...
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Primary victory points to macroeconomic uncertainty in Argentina
By Daniel Kerner President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner scored a clear victory in Argentina's first ever open primary election on August 14, setting the stage for her to sweep the October 23...
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'El Loco' strikes again
By Heather Berkman and Adam Siegel Panama's booming economy and newly acquired investment grade status have made the tiny tropical country a market darling. A number of factors, including a slew of...
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Venezuela: A lose-lose election
Today, we turn to the last in our series of posts on Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2012 and answer the most common questions we've gotten about it. Here's a summary: Venezuela -- A lose-lose election....
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China's fast-growing Middle East problem
By Michal Meidan A growing economic juggernaut and rising political power, China has many reasons to look to the Middle East: to import oil, extend its diplomatic influence, diversify its trade ties,...
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America's drug war partners are speaking their minds
By Adam Siegel Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos is likely to open the Sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena next month with a standard welcome for Barack Obama and the 33 other leaders of...
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Brazil wants some Security Council love. But it won't get it (yet).
By Joao Augusto de Castro Neves When Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff travels to Washington next week, she won't be looking for a free trade deal or military assistance. Her country, the "B" that...
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Latin America's gold diggers
By Adam Siegel As part of a recent crackdown, Colombian authorities have seized some of the latest tools favored by drug trafficking groups. Forget private planes, speedboats, and homemade submarines....
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Counting on Chávez
By Heather Berkman and Risa Grais-Targow The state of Hugo Chávez's health has prompted plenty of speculation and debate across Washington and among the Venezuelan president's universe of Twitter...
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Venezuela without Chavez: The rapidly approaching reality
By Daniel Kerner and Risa Grais-Targow The Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela is rapidly approaching its biggest test yet: The defiant Hugo Chavez, the man who has personified Venezuelan politics for...
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Risk #1: Emerging markets
Note: Today is the first in a series of posts that detail Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2013. Since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, investors and companies have focused mainly on risks in...
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Can Rafael Correa fill Hugo Chavez’s shoes?
By Risa Grais-Targow With Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez gravely ill and the Castro brothers in their twilight years, debate has begun to focus on the future of Chavez's brand of leftist politics in...
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Will Miguel Diaz-Canel lead post-Castro Cuba?
By Risa Grais-Targow Beginning what he says will be his final five-year term as Cuba's president, Raul Castro surprised Cuba observers this week by appointing Miguel Diaz-Canel as first vice-president....
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For friends of Chávez, there’s good news and bad news
As we wrote last August, some governments are watching political developments in Venezuela more closely -- and with more anxiety -- than others. For the past decade, that country's Petrocaribe program...
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